The rupee reversed early losses and gained 27 paise against the US dollar on Tuesday, July 20, to settle higher at 74.61 (provisional) tracking weaker American currency. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit witnessed heavy volatility today as it opened weaker at 74.93 against the dollar and witnessed an intra day high of 74.55. It witnessed a low of 74.95 and during the session. In an early trade session, the domestic currency declined six paise to 74.94 against the greenback.
The domestic unit closed at 74.61 against the American currency, registering a rise of 27 paise over its previous close. On Monday, July 19, the local unit settled at 74.88. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, slipped 0.05 per cent to 92.84.
What analysts say:
Mr Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex:
”The rupee- which weakened to a three-month low, is expected to trade in the range of 74.70-75.10 over the day. The importers could rush to cover dollar exposure as the USDINR pair is expected to move out of its consolidation phase on the broad dollar strengthening as the bias of risk appetite is gradually turning towards risk-off after a resurgence of Delta-variant cases globally, escalating inflation environment and renewed US-China tension is weighing on the equity markets.
In recent days, the RBI was seen buying dollars around 74.40-45 zone and curbing the rupee’s appreciating move. The answer to the question – ‘Will RBI intervene at this level and limit depreciating move?’ lies with RBI only.
The probability of odds of intervention at 74.90-75.00 seems very much limited or hardly 20 per cent and they are expected to allow it to depreciate towards 75.30-75.50 levels. On the downside, RBI led base of 74.40 will act as crucial support over the medium-term.”
Anindya Banerjee, DVP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities:
“USDINR spot closed 26 paise lower at 74.61 and July futures on NSE closed 74.71 on the back of recovery in global stock markets and improving risk sentiments. At the same time, lumpy corporate flows may have pushed USDINR lower as tomorrow being a holiday kept large buyers away from the market. Bias continues to be of a range between 74.40 and 75.00 levels on spot.”
Kshitij Purohit, Lead International & Commodities at CapitalVia Global Research Limited:
”USD/INR trades at 74.75, up 0.16 percent intraday, after climbing for the third day in a row to reclaim a multi-day high during Monday’s Asian session. The rupee (INR) pair, like other currency pairings on the board, justifies the US dollar’s safe-haven demand amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) difficulties.
The USDINR July opened on a positive note above 74.80-74.85, breaching a major hurdle in the currency’s path to gain Bullish momentum. Today’s session showed us that buyers were present on lower levels and were buying in heavy volumes on each meaningful dip and took prices to 75.00 mark which was a major resistance level which has been tested few weeks ago.”
Domestic Equity Markets Today:
On the domestic equity market front, the BSE Sensex ended 354.89 points or 0.68 per cent lower at 52,198.51, while the broader NSE Nifty declined 120.30 points or 0.76 per cent to 15,632.10 — led by selling pressure in banking, metal and financial services.
Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities:
“In the backdrop of weakness in global markets, Indian stock gauges continued to decline. Although, technically the market closed above the 15600/52100 level, we believe the pain is not over and the Nifty/Sensex would move to the 15450/51600 or 15300/51000 levels in the next few days.
ACC and Asian Paints recorded the highest gains in the Nifty-50 index, while Bank Nifty broke support at the 34600 level, pushing the index to the 33900 level. Until the market crosses the 15750/52500 level and closes at the 15750/52500, the strategy should be to reduce the weak long positions..”
According to exchange data, the foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the capital market on July 19 as they offloaded shares worth Rs 2,198.71 crore. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose 0.22 per cent to $ 68.77 per barrel.